Get all the information around bookmaking market for the Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz clash for the Cincinnati Open – Cincinnati 2025 on the August 14, 2025, in the following analysis. We uncover the Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz forecasts, betting tips and odds markets for this encounter in the our analysis below.
Prediction Indicated By Odds: Carlos Alcaraz to come out on top
- Derived via the sportsbook odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win in this match with a 92.31% probability to win. An accurate prediction? Most likely, due to Oddsmakers are highly accurate:
Luca Nardi → 12.97
Carlos Alcaraz → 1.08Prediction Chance Of Win Luca Nardi 7.69 % Carlos Alcaraz 92.31 % Above is implied from odds. Login now to get our expert predictions.
- Looking at the odds for total games, the most likely outcome over 22 with odds of 4.15 and an implied probability of 24.1%. This suggests the match is expected to be tight, possibly going the distance.
over 22 → 4.15
Prediction Over/Under over_22 24.1 % Above is calculated from odds. Login now to discover our expert picks.
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Prediction Based On Head-to-Head: Carlos Alcaraz to win the match
| Team | Head-To-Head Match Wins |
|---|---|
| Luca Nardi | 0 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 1 |
Head-2-Head: Luca Nardi (0 – 1) Carlos Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz to win. What’s the reasoning? In the last 1 head-to-head matches between these two sides, Carlos Alcaraz has the edge 0 – 1. Our head to head data goes back to the encounter between them in 2025. This suggests that Carlos Alcaraz is likely to get the victory in this scheduled face-off. Their most recent fixture was on the Wed, 19 Feb 25, when Carlos Alcaraz got a 6-4-6 – 1-6-3 win.
Luca Nardi has never got the win against Carlos Alcaraz suggesting they have a low probability.
Form-Based Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to prevail
Looking at team momentum heading into this fixture, Luca Nardi lost vs Jakub Mensik with a score of 6-2-ret./2-1-. Carlos Alcaraz secured victory up against Hamad Medjedovic with a result of 6-6/4-4. Luca Nardi have triumphed in 5 of their recent 10 fixtures versus all opponents, while Carlos Alcaraz prevailed in 9 of their recent 10 games in all competitions, suggesting perhaps Carlos Alcaraz is in better shape heading into this match.
Recent Form Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz
- Luca Nardi has won 6 of the last 10 matches played, while Carlos Alcaraz has secured 9 victories over the same range.
- Luca Nardi has been winning 45% of their own second serve points, and 44% of their opponents, while Carlos Alcaraz has won 46% of their second serve points and 43% of their opponents.
- Luca Nardi comes into this match having won a 42 min battle vs Jakub Mensik in which he managed to win 40% of return points (130/323), hitting 15 aces himself during the match.
- Carlos Alcaraz comes into this match having won a 1 hour 35 min battle vs Hamad Medjedovic in which he managed to win 44% of return points (71/162), hitting 19 aces himself during the match.
- In this event so far Luca Nardi has been holding serve 84% of the time (43/51), while Carlos Alcaraz has held their serve 82% of the time (18/22.
Career Performance Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz
- Luca Nardi has a career high ranking of 98, while Carlos Alcaraz has a career high rank of 2.
- Luca Nardi has claimed 10 Career titles and career earnings of $5,56,220, versus 29 trophies for Carlos Alcaraz and $3,34,75,510 prize money.
- Luca Nardi has a 67% deciding set win % (26/39), compared to 62% for Carlos Alcaraz (23/37)
- The 1st serve of Luca Nardi has resulted in him winning 63% of points, and Carlos Alcaraz has won 64% of their first serve points.
- Second serve points won, is 51% for Luca Nardi and 57% for Carlos Alcaraz.
- After losing the first set, Luca Nardi manages to turn the match around and win it 28% of the time, and Carlos Alcaraz has a 41% record in eventually winning the match.
