Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula Prediction Head To Head Summary
Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction:
Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Sabalenka has a 71.43% chance to win this match.
Sabalenka → 1.4. Pegula → 3.17.
BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Upcoming Match Details:
Sabalenka will play Pegula on I.hard court in the Robin round at the WTA WTA Finals event in Riyadh Women’s Singles 2025 on 4th November 2025.
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka 8-3 Pegula
The current Head to Head score is 8-3. Sabalenka comes into this match with a ranking of 1 , while Pegula is ranked 5.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:
- Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Pegula has won 43% of points on his second serve, while Sabalenka has won 40% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
- Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Pegula has won 30% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Sabalenka has won 30%. The same stats for second serve return points are 52% and 47% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
- Performance under pressure prediction: Pegula has been saving 53% of his breakpoints, and Sabalenka has saved 52% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Surface prediction: Pegula performs best on Hard, winning 68% (W/L 286/137) and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 57% (W/L 33/25). Sabalenka performs best on Hard, winning 74% (W/L 296/104), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 64% (W/L 42/24).
- In play break point conversion prediction: Jessica Pegula has converted 38% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Aryna Sabalenka has converted 32% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
- Last match played: In the match before this one, Aryna Sabalenka played Jasmine Paolini in the Robin round at the WTA Finals – Riyadh and won 6-3 6-1 in 01:10:41 . Jessica Pegula played Cori Gauff in the Robin round at the WTA Finals – Riyadh and won 6-3 6-7(4) 6-2 in 02:12:49.
Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents
Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.
See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Sabalenka Vs Pegula
Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:
Sabalenka has won 30 titles in her career, while Jessica Pegula has won 10 events. Sabalenka has won 53% (48113 of 91329) of points played in her entire career, and Pegula has achieved 52% (43237 of 83150). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Sabalenka has won 61% of tie breaks in his entire career (111 of 181), whereas Jessica Pegula has won 57% (105 of 183). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Aryna Sabalenka has an 70.03% probability of winning this match.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka To Get The Win
After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Aryna Sabalenka has a 70.03% chance of winning and Jessica Pegula has a 29.97% chance of taking the victory. We tip Sabalenka to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds
To see all live tennis scores for the WTA Finals – Riyadh.
