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Andy Murray vs Rafael Nadal Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com

By Wojtek Kolan

At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Murray vs Nadal analysis and find out who is favored!

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Up to 78% win accuracy on past h2h matches

Andy Murray vs Rafael Nadal Important H2H Prediction Stats:

  • Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Murray has won 50.83% of points on his second serve, while Nadal has won 52%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
  • Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Murray, in recent form, has won 48.19% of his opponent's second serve points, while Nadal has won 53.54%. The same stats for first serve returns are 28.65% and 29.84% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
  • Under pressure analysis: Murray has saved 59.8% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Nadal has saved 55.56% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
  • Performance overview: Over the last year Murray has won 58.33% of matches played (W/L 28/ 20), with Nadal winning 60% (W/L 3/ 2) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
  • Best surface: Murray has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 79% (W/L 136/ 36), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 69% (W/L 143/ 63). Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 502/ 54), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38).
  • Player level: In the last year, Murray has played most of their matches on the Challengers/ITF tournaments > $10K, winning 93.75% of matches (W/L 15/ 1), where as Nadal has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 60% of matches (W/L 3/ 2). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
  • Direct H2H matches: They have played 24 times before with Murray winning 7 times. They have played 68 sets in total, with Murray winning 24 and Nadal winning 44. The last match between Murray and Nadal was at the Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid, 07-05-2016, Semifinals, Clay with Andy Murray getting the victory 1100037118.
  • Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:20:18.
  • Deciding set H2H prediction: Murray and Nadal have played a deciding set 7 times, with Murray winning 2 times and Nadal 5 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
  • Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 9 tiebreaks against each other with Murray winning 3, and Nadal 6.
  • Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Murray has played against opponents with an average rank of 149.06 while Nadal has played against players with an average rank of 106.2.
  • Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Murray has won 39% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Nadal has won 0% in all matches played on tour.
  • Break point conversion: In recent form, Murray has converted 33.98% of breakpoint opportunities, and Nadal has converted 42.42% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
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Head-to-head: Murray 7 - 17 Nadal

Andy Murray

55

Total

14

Mast

5

Chall

3

Slam

26

Main

4

Minor

56

Rank

1

High

36

Age

R

Plays

7

Total

17

4

Hard

4

2

Clay

7

1

Indoor

3

0

Grass

3

644

Rank

1

High

37

Age

L

Plays

Rafael Nadal

94

Total

36

Mast

2

Chall

22

Slam

33

Main

0

Minor

7

Total

17

4

Hard

4

2

Clay

7

1

Indoor

3

0

Grass

3

L W L W L W L W W L

Form

W L L W L W W L W L

74% (838-292)

Career Total W/L

82% (1115-238)

38% (5-8)

YTD W/L

60% (3-2)

$44,738,625

Career Prize Money

$96,415,145

0

YTD Titles

0

Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.

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Murray VS Nadal H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

stats Andy Murray Rafael Nadal
All H2H Matches 7 17
Sets Won 24 44
Games Won 294 345
Aces (Total) 189 64
DFs (Total) 60 30
Avg Match Time 1:20:18 1:20:18
1st Serve % 56% (1161/2083) 68% (1373/2005)
1st Serve Win% 70% (813/1161) 68% (928/1373)
2nd Serve Win% 46% (425/922) 55% (346/632)
BPs Won% (Total) 34% (64/187) 40% (88/218)
Return Points W% 36% (731/2007) 40% (845/2093)
Best of 3 Sets W% 33% (5/15) 67% (10/15)
Best of 5 Sets W% 22% (2/9) 78% (7/9)
TBs Win% (Total) 33% (3/9) 67% (6/9)
Deciding Set Win% 29% (2/7) 71% (5/7)
1st set W, W 60% (10/6) 93% (14/13)
1st set W, L 40% (10/4) 7% (14/1)
1st set L, W 7% (14/1) 40% (10/4)

Murray VS Nadal H2h Matches played

Winning Player Losing Player Score
7-5 6-4
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Rafael Nadal
54% ( 49 of 90)
1st Serve %
81% ( 50 of 62)
8
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
0
69% ( 34 of 49)
1st Serve Won
62% ( 31 of 50)
46% ( 19 of 41)
2nd Serve Won
33% ( 4 of 12)
67% ( 4 of 6)
Break Points Won
15% ( 2 of 13)
41% ( 37 of 90)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 27 of 62)
80
Total Points Won
72
2-6 6-4 6-2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Andy Murray
74% ( 67 of 90)
1st Serve %
51% ( 44 of 87)
2
Aces
4
2
Double Faults
2
64% ( 43 of 67)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
57% ( 13 of 23)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 19 of 43)
40% ( 4 of 10)
Break Points Won
27% ( 3 of 11)
38% ( 34 of 90)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 38 of 87)
94
Total Points Won
83
6-4 6-1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Andy Murray
51% ( 27 of 53)
1st Serve %
43% ( 22 of 51)
1
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
4
67% ( 18 of 27)
1st Serve Won
64% ( 14 of 22)
62% ( 16 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
34% ( 10 of 29)
44% ( 4 of 9)
Break Points Won
100% ( 1 of 1)
36% ( 19 of 53)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 27 of 51)
61
Total Points Won
43
6-3 6-2
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Rafael Nadal
60% ( 31 of 52)
1st Serve %
72% ( 34 of 47)
3
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
68% ( 21 of 31)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 23 of 34)
81% ( 17 of 21)
2nd Serve Won
46% ( 6 of 13)
50% ( 3 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 3)
27% ( 14 of 52)
Rtn Points Won
38% ( 18 of 47)
56
Total Points Won
43
6-3 6-2 6-1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Andy Murray
76% ( 45 of 59)
1st Serve %
52% ( 35 of 67)
2
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
91% ( 41 of 45)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 22 of 35)
57% ( 8 of 14)
2nd Serve Won
34% ( 11 of 32)
100% ( 6 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
17% ( 10 of 59)
Rtn Points Won
51% ( 34 of 67)
83
Total Points Won
43
1-6 6-3 7-5
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Andy Murray
71% ( 61 of 86)
1st Serve %
64% ( 63 of 98)
6
Aces
5
1
Double Faults
4
67% ( 41 of 61)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 44 of 63)
52% ( 13 of 25)
2nd Serve Won
31% ( 11 of 35)
33% ( 4 of 12)
Break Points Won
40% ( 4 of 10)
37% ( 32 of 86)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 43 of 98)
97
Total Points Won
87
w/o
3-6 6-2 6-0
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Rafael Nadal
61% ( 39 of 64)
1st Serve %
69% ( 53 of 77)
6
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
0
79% ( 31 of 39)
1st Serve Won
43% ( 23 of 53)
64% ( 16 of 25)
2nd Serve Won
71% ( 17 of 24)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
17% ( 1 of 6)
27% ( 17 of 64)
Rtn Points Won
48% ( 37 of 77)
84
Total Points Won
57
6-4 6-2 3-6 6-2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Andy Murray
67% ( 74 of 111)
1st Serve %
54% ( 65 of 121)
3
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
2
72% ( 53 of 74)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 43 of 65)
57% ( 21 of 37)
2nd Serve Won
46% ( 26 of 56)
33% ( 6 of 18)
Break Points Won
20% ( 2 of 10)
33% ( 37 of 111)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 52 of 121)
126
Total Points Won
106
5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Andy Murray
68% ( 70 of 103)
1st Serve %
58% ( 66 of 113)
6
Aces
15
1
Double Faults
5
81% ( 57 of 70)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 48 of 66)
58% ( 19 of 33)
2nd Serve Won
49% ( 23 of 47)
63% ( 5 of 8)
Break Points Won
25% ( 1 of 4)
26% ( 27 of 103)
Rtn Points Won
37% ( 42 of 113)
0
Total Points Won
0
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Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

stats Andy Murray Rafael Nadal
YTD W/L 38% (5/8) 60% (3/2)
Sets Win/Loss 42% (14/19) 64% (7/4)
Games Win/Loss 49% (166/176) 57% (59/45)
Hard Win/Loss 45% (5/6) 67% (2/1)
Clay Win/Loss 0% (0/0) 50% (1/1)
Indoor Hard W/L 0% (0/2) 0% (0/0)
Grass Win/Loss 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Aces pg 0.53 0.28
Aces Total 89 14
DFs per game 0.14 0.2
DFs Total 24 10
Avg Match Time 2:19:36 1:55:33
Avg Opp Rank 72.46 106.2
1st Serve % 60% (639/1063) 69% (222/322)
1st Serve W% 74% (472/639) 74% (164/222)
2nd Serve W% 52% (219/424) 52% (52/100)
BPs Won% Total 31% (25/80) 42% (14/33)
Return Pts W% 35% (388/1118) 39% (125/318)
Slam W/L 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0)
Masters W/L 60% (3/2) 0% (0/0)
Cups W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Main Tour W/L 29% (2/5) 60% (3/2)
Tour Finals W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Challenger W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Futures W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Best of 3 Sets W% 42% (5/12) 60% (3/5)
Best of 5 Sets W% 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0)
TBs Win% (Total) 44% (4/9) 0% (0/1)
Deciding Set W% 33% (2/6) 0% (0/1)
1st set W, W 50% (6/3) 75% (4/3)
1st set W, L 50% (6/3) 25% (4/1)
1st set L, W 29% (7/2) 0% (1/0)

Andy Murray Recent Matches Played

opponent Result Score H2H
R3
cross
Tomas Machac
Player
Andy Murray
59% ( 77 of 130)
1st Serve %
56% ( 62 of 110)
6
Aces
15
3
Double Faults
3
75% ( 58 of 77)
1st Serve Won
82% ( 51 of 62)
51% ( 27 of 53)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 21 of 48)
40% ( 2 of 5)
Break Points Won
13% ( 2 of 15)
35% ( 45 of 130)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 38 of 110)
123
Total Points Won
117
L
5-7 7-5 7-6(5) H2H
R2
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
60% ( 41 of 68)
1st Serve %
68% ( 52 of 76)
10
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
0
83% ( 34 of 41)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 33 of 52)
67% ( 18 of 27)
2nd Serve Won
58% ( 14 of 24)
25% ( 1 of 4)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 7)
24% ( 16 of 68)
Rtn Points Won
38% ( 29 of 76)
81
Total Points Won
63
W
7-6(0) 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Matteo Berrettini
67% ( 56 of 83)
1st Serve %
64% ( 68 of 107)
9
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
0
79% ( 44 of 56)
1st Serve Won
75% ( 51 of 68)
67% ( 18 of 27)
2nd Serve Won
46% ( 18 of 39)
18% ( 2 of 11)
Break Points Won
20% ( 1 of 5)
25% ( 21 of 83)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 38 of 107)
100
Total Points Won
90
W
4-6 6-3 6-4 H2H
R2
cross
Andrey Rublev
Player
Andy Murray
54% ( 42 of 78)
1st Serve %
63% ( 45 of 72)
9
Aces
5
0
Double Faults
4
74% ( 31 of 42)
1st Serve Won
69% ( 31 of 45)
64% ( 23 of 36)
2nd Serve Won
41% ( 11 of 27)
40% ( 2 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 6)
31% ( 24 of 78)
Rtn Points Won
42% ( 30 of 72)
84
Total Points Won
66
L
7-6(3) 6-1 H2H
R1
cross
Andy Murray
Player
David Goffin
60% ( 27 of 45)
1st Serve %
64% ( 35 of 55)
4
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
1
85% ( 23 of 27)
1st Serve Won
54% ( 19 of 35)
72% ( 13 of 18)
2nd Serve Won
55% ( 11 of 20)
60% ( 3 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
20% ( 9 of 45)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 25 of 55)
61
Total Points Won
39
W
6-3 6-2 H2H
R2
cross
Ugo Humbert
Player
Andy Murray
67% ( 29 of 43)
1st Serve %
49% ( 33 of 67)
4
Aces
5
0
Double Faults
3
83% ( 24 of 29)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 23 of 33)
86% ( 12 of 14)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 15 of 34)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
16% ( 7 of 43)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 29 of 67)
65
Total Points Won
45
L
6-2 6-4 H2H
R1
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Denis Shapovalov
69% ( 67 of 97)
1st Serve %
56% ( 57 of 102)
3
Aces
15
1
Double Faults
10
75% ( 50 of 67)
1st Serve Won
77% ( 44 of 57)
53% ( 16 of 30)
2nd Serve Won
47% ( 21 of 45)
50% ( 3 of 6)
Break Points Won
33% ( 2 of 6)
32% ( 31 of 97)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 37 of 102)
103
Total Points Won
96
W
4-6 7-6(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Jakub Mensik
Player
Andy Murray
62% ( 77 of 125)
1st Serve %
64% ( 78 of 121)
12
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
3
68% ( 52 of 77)
1st Serve Won
69% ( 54 of 78)
58% ( 28 of 48)
2nd Serve Won
58% ( 25 of 43)
100% ( 3 of 3)
Break Points Won
43% ( 3 of 7)
36% ( 45 of 125)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 42 of 121)
122
Total Points Won
124
L
7-6(6) 6-7(3) 7-6(4) H2H
R1
cross
Andy Murray
Player
Alexandre Muller
61% ( 45 of 74)
1st Serve %
63% ( 45 of 71)
4
Aces
5
1
Double Faults
2
73% ( 33 of 45)
1st Serve Won
67% ( 30 of 45)
55% ( 16 of 29)
2nd Serve Won
42% ( 11 of 26)
60% ( 3 of 5)
Break Points Won
25% ( 1 of 4)
34% ( 25 of 74)
Rtn Points Won
42% ( 30 of 71)
79
Total Points Won
66
W
6-1 7-6(5) H2H
R1
cross
Tomas Machac
Player
Andy Murray
65% ( 40 of 62)
1st Serve %
49% ( 29 of 59)
3
Aces
3
2
Double Faults
2
83% ( 33 of 40)
1st Serve Won
72% ( 21 of 29)
55% ( 12 of 22)
2nd Serve Won
57% ( 17 of 30)
60% ( 3 of 5)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
27% ( 17 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 21 of 59)
66
Total Points Won
55
L
7-5 6-4 H2H

Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played

opponent Result Score H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
L
7-5 6-1 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65% ( 32 of 49)
1st Serve %
49% ( 27 of 55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78% ( 25 of 32)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 19 of 27)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 10 of 28)
40% ( 4 of 10)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
31% ( 15 of 49)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 26 of 55)
60
Total Points Won
44
W
6-2 6-3 H2H
QF
cross
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61% ( 67 of 109)
1st Serve %
73% ( 79 of 108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76% ( 51 of 67)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 58 of 79)
48% ( 20 of 42)
2nd Serve Won
45% ( 13 of 29)
67% ( 2 of 3)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
35% ( 38 of 109)
Rtn Points Won
34% ( 37 of 108)
108
Total Points Won
109
L
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jason Murray Kubler
65% ( 30 of 46)
1st Serve %
76% ( 35 of 46)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
3
80% ( 24 of 30)
1st Serve Won
57% ( 20 of 35)
63% ( 10 of 16)
2nd Serve Won
18% ( 2 of 11)
67% ( 4 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 4)
26% ( 12 of 46)
Rtn Points Won
52% ( 24 of 46)
58
Total Points Won
34
W
6-1 6-2 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
67% ( 31 of 46)
1st Serve %
63% ( 34 of 54)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
90% ( 28 of 31)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 23 of 34)
80% ( 12 of 15)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 10 of 20)
50% ( 3 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
13% ( 6 of 46)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 21 of 54)
61
Total Points Won
39
W
7-5 6-1 H2H
R2
cross
Mackenzie Mcdonald
Player
Rafael Nadal
66% ( 63 of 95)
1st Serve %
64% ( 65 of 102)
14
Aces
6
2
Double Faults
2
68% ( 43 of 63)
1st Serve Won
62% ( 40 of 65)
63% ( 20 of 32)
2nd Serve Won
49% ( 18 of 37)
63% ( 5 of 8)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 32 of 95)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 44 of 102)
107
Total Points Won
90
L
6-4 6-4 7-5 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jack Draper
66% ( 78 of 119)
1st Serve %
58% ( 67 of 115)
6
Aces
13
3
Double Faults
3
73% ( 57 of 78)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 42 of 67)
51% ( 21 of 41)
2nd Serve Won
56% ( 27 of 48)
50% ( 6 of 12)
Break Points Won
36% ( 4 of 11)
34% ( 41 of 119)
Rtn Points Won
40% ( 46 of 115)
124
Total Points Won
110
W
7-5 2-6 6-4 6-1 H2H
Robin
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
62% ( 62 of 100)
1st Serve %
61% ( 56 of 92)
3
Aces
2
6
Double Faults
4
63% ( 39 of 62)
1st Serve Won
61% ( 34 of 56)
50% ( 19 of 38)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 16 of 36)
46% ( 6 of 13)
Break Points Won
33% ( 4 of 12)
42% ( 42 of 100)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 42 of 92)
100
Total Points Won
92
L
3-6 6-1 7-5 H2H
Robin
cross
Cameron Norrie
Player
Rafael Nadal
65% ( 57 of 88)
1st Serve %
58% ( 55 of 95)
6
Aces
10
2
Double Faults
4
74% ( 42 of 57)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 40 of 55)
58% ( 18 of 31)
2nd Serve Won
53% ( 21 of 40)
18% ( 2 of 11)
Break Points Won
17% ( 1 of 6)
32% ( 28 of 88)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 34 of 95)
94
Total Points Won
89
L
3-6 6-3 6-4 H2H
Robin
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Casper Ruud
67% ( 41 of 61)
1st Serve %
70% ( 46 of 66)
16
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
0
93% ( 38 of 41)
1st Serve Won
72% ( 33 of 46)
60% ( 12 of 20)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 10 of 20)
67% ( 2 of 3)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 2)
18% ( 11 of 61)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 23 of 66)
73
Total Points Won
54
W
7-5 7-5 H2H

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