Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Carlos Alcaraz has a slightly lower second serve win rate in recent months at 45.56% compared to Brandon Nakashima's 48.87%. Could this second serve proficiency give Nakashima a small edge?
• Both players have similar return stats for second serves, with Nakashima holding a slight advantage at 43.60% compared to Alcaraz's 42.27%.
• In terms of first serve returns, Alcaraz leads narrowly with a success rate of 25.72% over Nakashima's 24.39%.
• Regarding handling pressure, Nakashima exhibits resilience by saving 60.14% of break points, surpassing Alcaraz's 53.39%.
• Alcaraz has demonstrated superior overall match-winning capability over the past year with an impressive 87.06% success rate, significantly outpacing Nakashima's 52.46%.
• Alcaraz's strongest surface is grass with a 90% win rate, whereas Nakashima performs best on indoor hard courts with a 70% win rate.
• Considering the event level, Alcaraz predominantly competes and excels in Masters series matches with an 86.21% win rate, compared to Nakashima's Main tour focus with a 57.14% win rate.
• In their head-to-head meetings, Alcaraz leads 2-0, winning five out of six sets played.
• Alcaraz has faced tougher competition on average over the past year, with opponent ranks averaging 52.41 compared to Nakashima's 75.03.
• If the match extends to a deciding set, Alcaraz shows better performance, claiming victory in 79% of those situations compared to Nakashima's 43% success rate.

Editorial Prediction (September 27, 2025, UTC):

Carlos Alcaraz enters the match with a strong track record, having consistently won against higher-ranked opponents. His overall win percentage over the past year significantly outshines that of Brandon Nakashima, and his ability to perform well under pressure, especially in deciding sets, is a crucial factor.

While Nakashima holds a slight advantage in recent second serve statistics, Alcaraz displays resilience in return games and thrives on high-level competition, as evidenced by his success in the Masters series. Alcaraz's head-to-head dominance against Nakashima further solidifies his standing as the favorite.

Given these insights, Carlos Alcaraz is the likely victor for this upcoming match, given his superior track record both overall and in matches directly against Nakashima.