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Dominic Thiem vs Rafael Nadal Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com
By Wojtek Kolan
At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Thiem vs Nadal analysis and find out who is favored!
Dominic Thiem vs Rafael Nadal Important H2H Prediction Stats:
- Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Thiem has won 50.46% of points on his second serve, while Nadal has won 52%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
- Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Thiem, in recent form, has won 48.31% of his opponent's second serve points, while Nadal has won 53.54%. The same stats for first serve returns are 26.83% and 29.84% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
- Under pressure analysis: Thiem has saved 55.96% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Nadal has saved 55.56% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Performance overview: Over the last year Thiem has won 50.94% of matches played (W/L 27/ 26), with Nadal winning 60% (W/L 3/ 2) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
- Best surface: Thiem has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 70% (W/L 257/ 109), and worse career win % on Grass, winning 45% (W/L 14/ 17). Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 502/ 54), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38).
- Player level: In the last year, Thiem has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 53.85% of matches (W/L 14/ 12), where as Nadal has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 60% of matches (W/L 3/ 2). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
- Direct H2H matches: They have played 16 times before with Thiem winning 6 times. They have played 43 sets in total, with Thiem winning 16 and Nadal winning 27. The last match between Thiem and Nadal was at the Brisbane International - Brisbane, 02-01-2024, First, Hard with Rafael Nadal getting the victory .
- Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 2:24:24.
- Deciding set H2H prediction: Thiem and Nadal have played a deciding set 2 times, with Thiem winning 1 times and Nadal 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
- Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 9 tiebreaks against each other with Thiem winning 7, and Nadal 2.
- Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Thiem has played against opponents with an average rank of 159.11 while Nadal has played against players with an average rank of 106.2.
- Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Thiem has won 52% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Nadal has won 0% in all matches played on tour.
- Break point conversion: In recent form, Thiem has converted 31.93% of breakpoint opportunities, and Nadal has converted 42.42% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
Head-to-head: Thiem 6 - 10 Nadal
105
Rank
3
High
30
Age
R
Plays
6
Total10
1
Hard2
4
Clay8
1
Indoor0
0
Grass0
644
Rank
1
High
37
Age
L
Plays
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
Form
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
64% (481-271)
Career Total W/L
82% (1115-238)
42% (5-7)
YTD W/L
60% (3-2)
$20,479,395
Career Prize Money
$96,415,145
0
YTD Titles
0
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
| stats | Dominic Thiem | Rafael Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| All H2H Matches | 6 | 10 |
| Sets Won | 16 | 27 |
| Games Won | 187 | 241 |
| Aces (Total) | 93 | 39 |
| DFs (Total) | 42 | 29 |
| Avg Match Time | 2:24:24 | 2:24:24 |
| 1st Serve % | 61% (827/1357) | 69% (941/1373) |
| 1st Serve Win% | 67% (555/827) | 70% (657/941) |
| 2nd Serve Win% | 49% (260/530) | 57% (246/432) |
| BPs Won% (Total) | 30% (33/111) | 41% (58/142) |
| Return Points W% | 34% (470/1373) | 40% (542/1357) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 50% (5/10) | 50% (5/10) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 17% (1/6) | 83% (5/6) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 78% (7/9) | 22% (2/9) |
| Deciding Set Win% | 50% (1/2) | 50% (1/2) |
| 1st set W, W | 86% (7/6) | 100% (9/9) |
| 1st set W, L | 14% (7/1) | 0% (9/0) |
| 1st set L, W | 0% (9/0) | 14% (7/1) |
| Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-5 6-1 |
Stats 
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
67%
(
31 of
46)
1st Serve %
63%
(
34 of
54)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
90%
(
28 of
31)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
23 of
34)
80%
(
12 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
13%
(
6 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
21 of
54)
61
Total Points Won
39
|
||||
| 7-6(7) 7-6(4) |
Stats
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
59%
(
51 of
87)
1st Serve %
60%
(
48 of
80)
6
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
1
76%
(
39 of
51)
1st Serve Won
69%
(
33 of
48)
53%
(
19 of
36)
2nd Serve Won
59%
(
19 of
32)
20%
(
1 of
5)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
33%
(
29 of
87)
Rtn Points Won
35%
(
28 of
80)
86
Total Points Won
81
|
||||
| 7-6(3) 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(6) |
Stats
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
59%
(
83 of
140)
1st Serve %
70%
(
105 of
151)
14
Aces
11
4
Double Faults
3
78%
(
65 of
83)
1st Serve Won
69%
(
72 of
105)
49%
(
28 of
57)
2nd Serve Won
52%
(
24 of
46)
38%
(
3 of
8)
Break Points Won
44%
(
4 of
9)
34%
(
47 of
140)
Rtn Points Won
36%
(
55 of
151)
148
Total Points Won
143
|
||||
| 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
74%
(
78 of
106)
1st Serve %
70%
(
64 of
92)
3
Aces
7
0
Double Faults
1
73%
(
57 of
78)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
37 of
64)
64%
(
18 of
28)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
14 of
28)
54%
(
7 of
13)
Break Points Won
33%
(
2 of
6)
29%
(
31 of
106)
Rtn Points Won
45%
(
41 of
92)
116
Total Points Won
82
|
||||
| 6-4 6-4 |
Stats
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
72%
(
41 of
57)
1st Serve %
74%
(
59 of
80)
5
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
5
76%
(
31 of
41)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
38 of
59)
69%
(
11 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
43%
(
9 of
21)
17%
(
2 of
12)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
3)
26%
(
15 of
57)
Rtn Points Won
41%
(
33 of
80)
75
Total Points Won
62
|
||||
| 0-6 6-4 7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(5) |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
66%
(
110 of
167)
1st Serve %
58%
(
98 of
170)
3
Aces
18
4
Double Faults
4
67%
(
74 of
110)
1st Serve Won
71%
(
70 of
98)
56%
(
32 of
57)
2nd Serve Won
56%
(
40 of
72)
29%
(
5 of
17)
Break Points Won
46%
(
6 of
13)
37%
(
61 of
167)
Rtn Points Won
35%
(
60 of
170)
166
Total Points Won
171
|
||||
| 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
68%
(
56 of
82)
1st Serve %
58%
(
59 of
102)
0
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
5
82%
(
46 of
56)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
40 of
59)
46%
(
12 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
15 of
43)
29%
(
5 of
17)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
29%
(
24 of
82)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
47 of
102)
105
Total Points Won
79
|
||||
| 7-5 6-3 |
Stats
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
65%
(
39 of
60)
1st Serve %
58%
(
45 of
77)
2
Aces
3
5
Double Faults
2
74%
(
29 of
39)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
29 of
45)
43%
(
9 of
21)
2nd Serve Won
34%
(
11 of
32)
42%
(
5 of
12)
Break Points Won
40%
(
2 of
5)
37%
(
22 of
60)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
37 of
77)
75
Total Points Won
62
|
||||
| 6-0 6-2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
71%
(
25 of
35)
1st Serve %
41%
(
21 of
51)
0
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
5
84%
(
21 of
25)
1st Serve Won
52%
(
11 of
21)
80%
(
8 of
10)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
11 of
30)
42%
(
5 of
12)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
17%
(
6 of
35)
Rtn Points Won
57%
(
29 of
51)
58
Total Points Won
28
|
||||
| 6-3 6-4 6-0 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
66%
(
49 of
74)
1st Serve %
53%
(
43 of
81)
2
Aces
3
2
Double Faults
3
71%
(
35 of
49)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
27 of
43)
76%
(
19 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
14 of
38)
60%
(
6 of
10)
Break Points Won
13%
(
1 of
8)
27%
(
20 of
74)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
40 of
81)
94
Total Points Won
61
|
||||
view more
Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
| stats | Dominic Thiem | Rafael Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| YTD W/L | 42% (5/7) | 60% (3/2) |
| Sets Win/Loss | 40% (12/18) | 64% (7/4) |
| Games Win/Loss | 45% (136/163) | 57% (59/45) |
| Hard Win/Loss | 50% (2/2) | 67% (2/1) |
| Clay Win/Loss | 29% (2/5) | 50% (1/1) |
| Indoor Hard W/L | 100% (1/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Grass Win/Loss | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Aces pg | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Aces Total | 45 | 14 |
| DFs per game | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| DFs Total | 34 | 10 |
| Avg Match Time | 1:53:31 | 1:55:33 |
| Avg Opp Rank | 195.75 | 106.2 |
| 1st Serve % | 62% (509/815) | 69% (222/322) |
| 1st Serve W% | 68% (345/509) | 74% (164/222) |
| 2nd Serve W% | 46% (141/306) | 52% (52/100) |
| BPs Won% Total | 32% (19/60) | 42% (14/33) |
| Return Pts W% | 34% (285/832) | 39% (125/318) |
| Slam W/L | 0% (0/1) | 0% (0/0) |
| Masters W/L | 0% (0/1) | 0% (0/0) |
| Cups W/L | 100% (1/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Main Tour W/L | 50% (3/3) | 60% (3/2) |
| Tour Finals W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Challenger W/L | 33% (1/2) | 0% (0/0) |
| Futures W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 45% (5/11) | 60% (3/5) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 0% (0/1) | 0% (0/0) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 67% (4/6) | 0% (0/1) |
| Deciding Set W% | 75% (3/4) | 0% (0/1) |
| 1st set W, W | 100% (3/3) | 75% (4/3) |
| 1st set W, L | 0% (3/0) | 25% (4/1) |
| 1st set L, W | 22% (9/2) | 0% (1/0) |
Dominic Thiem Recent Matches Played
Before:
| opponent | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 |
Stats
Alejandro Moro Canas
Player
Dominic Thiem
75%
(
58 of
77)
1st Serve %
51%
(
29 of
57)
3
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
66%
(
38 of
58)
1st Serve Won
55%
(
16 of
29)
37%
(
7 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
14 of
28)
83%
(
5 of
6)
Break Points Won
38%
(
3 of
8)
42%
(
32 of
77)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
27 of
57)
72
Total Points Won
62
|
6-4 6-4 | H2H | ||
| Q1 |
Stats
Roberto Bautista Agut
Player
Dominic Thiem
78%
(
35 of
45)
1st Serve %
64%
(
27 of
42)
2
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
3
69%
(
24 of
35)
1st Serve Won
37%
(
10 of
27)
70%
(
7 of
10)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
6 of
15)
83%
(
5 of
6)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
31%
(
14 of
45)
Rtn Points Won
62%
(
26 of
42)
57
Total Points Won
30
|
6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Richard Gasquet
Player
Dominic Thiem
52%
(
32 of
61)
1st Serve %
57%
(
52 of
91)
3
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
4
72%
(
23 of
32)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
34 of
52)
72%
(
21 of
29)
2nd Serve Won
51%
(
20 of
39)
25%
(
2 of
8)
Break Points Won
100%
(
1 of
1)
28%
(
17 of
61)
Rtn Points Won
41%
(
37 of
91)
81
Total Points Won
71
|
6-4 7-6(6) | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Dominic Thiem
Player
Maximilian Marterer
61%
(
52 of
85)
1st Serve %
62%
(
59 of
95)
6
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
7
73%
(
38 of
52)
1st Serve Won
59%
(
35 of
59)
48%
(
16 of
33)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
16 of
36)
50%
(
6 of
12)
Break Points Won
33%
(
2 of
6)
36%
(
31 of
85)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
44 of
95)
98
Total Points Won
82
|
6-1 6-7(3) 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Lukas Neumayer
Player
Dominic Thiem
62%
(
45 of
73)
1st Serve %
56%
(
27 of
48)
1
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
2
67%
(
30 of
45)
1st Serve Won
59%
(
16 of
27)
57%
(
16 of
28)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
8 of
21)
57%
(
4 of
7)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
8)
37%
(
27 of
73)
Rtn Points Won
50%
(
24 of
48)
70
Total Points Won
51
|
6-2 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R1 | 6-2 7-6(4) | H2H | |||
| R1 |
Stats
Daniel Michalski
Player
Dominic Thiem
64%
(
49 of
77)
1st Serve %
57%
(
34 of
60)
0
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
1
69%
(
34 of
49)
1st Serve Won
71%
(
24 of
34)
57%
(
16 of
28)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
10 of
26)
43%
(
3 of
7)
Break Points Won
14%
(
1 of
7)
35%
(
27 of
77)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
26 of
60)
76
Total Points Won
61
|
6-3 6-4 | H2H | ||
| Rubber 1 | 7-6(6) 6-3 | H2H | |||
| R1 |
Stats
Felix Auger Aliassime
Player
Dominic Thiem
58%
(
97 of
166)
1st Serve %
67%
(
121 of
180)
16
Aces
15
10
Double Faults
8
77%
(
75 of
97)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
85 of
121)
58%
(
40 of
69)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
28 of
59)
38%
(
5 of
13)
Break Points Won
38%
(
3 of
8)
31%
(
51 of
166)
Rtn Points Won
37%
(
67 of
180)
182
Total Points Won
164
|
6-3 7-5 6-7(5) 5-7 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
67%
(
31 of
46)
1st Serve %
63%
(
34 of
54)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
90%
(
28 of
31)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
23 of
34)
80%
(
12 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
13%
(
6 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
21 of
54)
61
Total Points Won
39
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
view more
Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played
Before:
| opponent | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52%
(
28 of
54)
1st Serve %
68%
(
50 of
73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75%
(
21 of
28)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
29 of
50)
65%
(
17 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
8 of
23)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
30%
(
16 of
54)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
36 of
73)
74
Total Points Won
53
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65%
(
32 of
49)
1st Serve %
49%
(
27 of
55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78%
(
25 of
32)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
19 of
27)
53%
(
9 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
10 of
28)
40%
(
4 of
10)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
31%
(
15 of
49)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
26 of
55)
60
Total Points Won
44
|
6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61%
(
67 of
109)
1st Serve %
73%
(
79 of
108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76%
(
51 of
67)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
58 of
79)
48%
(
20 of
42)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
13 of
29)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
25%
(
2 of
8)
35%
(
38 of
109)
Rtn Points Won
34%
(
37 of
108)
108
Total Points Won
109
|
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jason Murray Kubler
65%
(
30 of
46)
1st Serve %
76%
(
35 of
46)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
3
80%
(
24 of
30)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
20 of
35)
63%
(
10 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
18%
(
2 of
11)
67%
(
4 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
4)
26%
(
12 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
52%
(
24 of
46)
58
Total Points Won
34
|
6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
67%
(
31 of
46)
1st Serve %
63%
(
34 of
54)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
90%
(
28 of
31)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
23 of
34)
80%
(
12 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
13%
(
6 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
21 of
54)
61
Total Points Won
39
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Mackenzie Mcdonald
Player
Rafael Nadal
66%
(
63 of
95)
1st Serve %
64%
(
65 of
102)
14
Aces
6
2
Double Faults
2
68%
(
43 of
63)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
40 of
65)
63%
(
20 of
32)
2nd Serve Won
49%
(
18 of
37)
63%
(
5 of
8)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
34%
(
32 of
95)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
44 of
102)
107
Total Points Won
90
|
6-4 6-4 7-5 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jack Draper
66%
(
78 of
119)
1st Serve %
58%
(
67 of
115)
6
Aces
13
3
Double Faults
3
73%
(
57 of
78)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
42 of
67)
51%
(
21 of
41)
2nd Serve Won
56%
(
27 of
48)
50%
(
6 of
12)
Break Points Won
36%
(
4 of
11)
34%
(
41 of
119)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
46 of
115)
124
Total Points Won
110
|
7-5 2-6 6-4 6-1 | H2H | ||
| Robin |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
62%
(
62 of
100)
1st Serve %
61%
(
56 of
92)
3
Aces
2
6
Double Faults
4
63%
(
39 of
62)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
34 of
56)
50%
(
19 of
38)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
16 of
36)
46%
(
6 of
13)
Break Points Won
33%
(
4 of
12)
42%
(
42 of
100)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
42 of
92)
100
Total Points Won
92
|
3-6 6-1 7-5 | H2H | ||
| Robin |
Stats
Cameron Norrie
Player
Rafael Nadal
65%
(
57 of
88)
1st Serve %
58%
(
55 of
95)
6
Aces
10
2
Double Faults
4
74%
(
42 of
57)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
40 of
55)
58%
(
18 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
53%
(
21 of
40)
18%
(
2 of
11)
Break Points Won
17%
(
1 of
6)
32%
(
28 of
88)
Rtn Points Won
36%
(
34 of
95)
94
Total Points Won
89
|
3-6 6-3 6-4 | H2H | ||
| Robin |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Casper Ruud
67%
(
41 of
61)
1st Serve %
70%
(
46 of
66)
16
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
0
93%
(
38 of
41)
1st Serve Won
72%
(
33 of
46)
60%
(
12 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
2)
18%
(
11 of
61)
Rtn Points Won
35%
(
23 of
66)
73
Total Points Won
54
|
7-5 7-5 | H2H | ||
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