Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex De Minaur Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Aliassime has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 47.52% of points, compared to Minaur's 45.45%. Does this indicate strength under pressure? It appears so.
• When it comes to returning second serves, Aliassime leads slightly with a 44.4% success rate, whereas Minaur stands at 42.42%. This suggests Aliassime might have a minor advantage in return games.
• Minaur exhibits a slightly better ability to return first serves, winning 24.94% compared to Aliassime's 23.07%. Could this factor play a pivotal role in the match outcome?
• Under pressure, Aliassime is more resilient, saving 58.63% of breakpoints while Minaur manages 49.69%. This might imply Aliassime's better handling of crucial moments.
• Over the last year, Minaur has a higher match win rate, boasting a 66.67% success rate, compared to Aliassime's 62.3%. Does this make Minaur the favorite?
• Aliassime is notably strong on indoor hard courts, boasting a 69% win rate, while Minaur excels on grass with a 68% win rate.
• In matches played on the Main tour recently, Minaur exhibits a higher win percentage (73.08%) than Aliassime (67.57%). This could be indicative of current form.
• Historical head-to-head encounters favor Aliassime slightly, having won 3 of their 5 matches and 8 of 12 sets overall.
• Both players appear evenly matched in tiebreak scenarios, though Aliassime has the slight historical edge.
• Minaur has a better record in deciding sets against Aliassime in their head-to-head, winning both past occasions.
• Aliassime averages slightly higher-ranked opponents (65.79) as compared to Minaur (61.03), suggesting potentially tougher matches.
• Should the match reach a deciding set, Aliassime shows a stronger performance trend in recent form, winning 60% of such encounters.
• In terms of break point conversion recently, Minaur is more efficient, capitalizing on 31.03% of opportunities, surpassing Aliassime's 25.44%.

Editorial Prediction (September 2, 2025, UTC):

As we analyze the upcoming match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur, several factors show the potential strengths and weaknesses of both players. Despite Aliassime's slight advantage in second serve points and breakpoint saving efficiency, De Minaur's superior return game, especially against first serves, cannot be overlooked.

Historical data from their head-to-head matches suggests Aliassime holds a narrow lead, winning more matches and sets overall. However, De Minaur's two victories in deciding set scenarios and his slight edge in recent overall match wins indicate stronger resilience in tight situations.

Given these findings and the context of the match, Alex de Minaur may have a slight advantage in terms of overall recent form. However, Aliassime's capability to perform well under pressure positions him as a formidable opponent. Taking all these elements into account, Alex de Minaur seems slightly more probable to win this upcoming encounter.