Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve performance shows Madison Keys with a slight edge, winning 41.26% of second serve points compared to Iga Swiatek's 38.26%.
• How significant are return stats in predicting match outcomes? Madison Keys currently outperforms Iga Swiatek in return game stats, winning 49.84% of second serve return points and 29.78% of first serve return points, against Swiatek's 47.64% and 26.45% respectively.
• Under pressure, Madison Keys saves breakpoints at a higher rate, 58.13%, compared to Iga Swiatek's 45.70%.
• Overall performance indicates Iga Swiatek has a higher win percentage over the last year, securing 80.49% of her matches, while Madison Keys has won 74.00%.
• Looking at surface preferences, Swiatek excels on clay with an 87% win record, whereas Keys excels on grass with the same win percentage.
• In high-level Masters series events over the past year, Iga Swiatek has a 75.00% win rate, slightly better than Madison Keys' 70.00%.
• Head-to-head, Iga Swiatek leads with 5 victories to Madison Keys' 2 in their 7 encounters, including a recent win at the Mutua Madrid Open on clay.
• Although they are evenly matched in deciding sets head-to-head (1-1), Keys generally performs better when matches go the distance, winning 75% of deciding sets, slightly higher than Swiatek's 72%.
• Both players face similarly ranked opponents, with negligible difference in average opponent rank (Swiatek's opponents average rank 48.84 vs. Keys' 49.78).

Editorial Prediction (October 29, 2025, UTC):

Iga Swiatek shows superior consistency and overall performance, evident in her 80.49% win rate over the past year compared to Madison Keys' 74.00%. This suggests a formidable presence against a variety of opponents.

Madison Keys, however, demonstrates strength in crucial second serve and return scenarios, potentially giving her an edge in key moments of the match.

Historically, Swiatek has had the upper hand in their head-to-head matchups, winning five of their seven clashes, including a recent victory on clay, a surface she traditionally excels on.

Considering their performances under pressure and track records, Iga Swiatek is the likely favorite to win the upcoming match against Madison Keys.