Jasmine Paolini vs Jelena Ostapenko Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second serve: Paolini excels on her second serve, currently winning 42.03% of points, outperforming Ostapenko's 36.7%.
• Return game: Ostapenko dominates in return games, especially on her opponent’s second serve, winning 55.31% of points compared to Paolini’s 48.89%.
• Breakpoint resilience: Under pressure, Ostapenko has a slight edge, saving 48.12% of breakpoints, compared to Paolini's 45.7%.
• Match wins: Over the past year, Paolini has been more successful overall, achieving a win rate of 69.84%, while Ostapenko stands at 51.22%.
• Surface preference: Paolini thrives on clay with a 63% win rate, whereas Ostapenko performs best on grass with 69% wins.
• Tournament level: Paolini has focused on the Masters series, winning 61.54% of her matches. Ostapenko has a 50% win rate in Main tour matches.
• Head-to-head history: Ostapenko leads their encounters 2-1, winning the most recent match on a hard surface, 6-2, 6-2.
• Match duration: Their matches average about 57 minutes, with one deciding set that Ostapenko won.
• Opponent caliber: Paolini has faced slightly stronger competition, with opponents averaging a rank of 53.6, compared to Ostapenko’s 60.88.
• Deciding sets: Ostapenko shows strength in deciding sets, winning 60% over the past year, compared to Paolini’s 56%.
• Breakpoint conversion: Ostapenko has been more efficient in converting breakpoints recently, at 40.59% compared to Paolini's 35.98%.

Editorial Prediction (May 12, 2025, UTC):

As the upcoming match between Paolini and Ostapenko approaches, several factors suggest a competitive encounter. Paolini's second serve has been particularly effective in recent months, giving her a valuable edge in service games.

Nevertheless, Ostapenko's superior return game performance, especially against second serves, may help neutralize Paolini's serve advantage. Her ability to consistently save breakpoints also plays into her favor.

Despite Paolini's higher overall win rate over the past year and preference for clay surfaces, Ostapenko's record in head-to-head matches tips the balance slightly in her favor, having won their last encounter decisively.

Considering these factors, Ostapenko seems more likely to secure victory in this matchup, utilizing her strengths in returns and breakpoint opportunities.