Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In recent months, Joao Fonseca has had a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 48.39% of points, compared to 46.89% for Karen Khachanov. Could this small difference be crucial in the upcoming match?
• Khachanov's recent return game has outperformed Fonseca's, winning 46.68% of opponents' second serve points versus Fonseca's 43.80%.
• When examining return stats on first serves, Khachanov also leads, capturing 24.51% of points compared to Fonseca's 22.84%.
• Fonseca has been slightly better under pressure, saving 58.59% of breakpoints versus Khachanov’s 56.95%.
• Over the past year, Fonseca boasts a higher match win percentage (72.73%) than Khachanov (58.62%), suggesting greater recent consistency.
• Khachanov excels on grass with a career win rate of 63%, while grass is Fonseca’s weakest surface at a 42% win rate. Is the surface the deciding factor in this matchup?
• Match levels are different; Khachanov has mostly competed in the Masters series over the last year, maintaining a win rate of 64%, whereas Fonseca has excelled in Main tour events with a 78.95% win rate.
• Khachanov's opponents had an average ranking of 69.07, indicating a generally tougher competitive field compared to Fonseca's, whose opponents had an average rank of 96.8.
• If the match enters a deciding set, Fonseca seems more resilient, having won 75% of such sets over the past year as opposed to Khachanov's 43%.
• Current event performance and historical performances at specific events could also influence the outcome, although these data aren't available in this analysis.

Editorial Prediction (October 29, 2025, UTC):

This upcoming tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Joao Fonseca presents an intriguing comparison of performance metrics.

Fonseca's recent advantage in second serve points and his higher overall win rate over the last year suggests strong recent form, whereas Khachanov exhibits strength in return games and experience against more challenging opponents.

Considering both players' event levels and surface preferences, the edge slightly tilts to Fonseca with his consistency in deciding sets and higher success in lesser-ranked events.

Based on these evaluations, Joao Fonseca seems more likely to secure victory in this matchup, although Khachanov's experience should not be underestimated.