Marta Kostyuk vs Daria Kasatkina Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Kasatkina has a slightly lower second serve points won (38.28%) compared to Kostyuk (39.33%) over the last six months.
• Who has the edge in returning second serves? Kasatkina, as she has won 51.56% of these points, whereas Kostyuk has won 48.91%.
• For first serve returns, Kasatkina again leads slightly with 35.53% compared to Kostyuk's 34.04%.
• Under pressure, Kostyuk has saved more breakpoints (52.09%) than Kasatkina (45.53%).
• Which player has had a better overall performance in the past year? Kostyuk with a win rate of 54% compared to Kasatkina's 52.73%.
• Their head-to-head match history is tight, with Kasatkina leading 4-3 in matches and both tied in sets won at 8 each.
• Kostyuk's last victory against Kasatkina was on clay, with a straight-sets win in their previous match.
• Kasatkina has demonstrated dominance in deciding sets in their head-to-head, winning both encounters.
• Kasatkina has faced marginally tougher opponents in the last year, with an average opponent rank of 54.96 versus Kostyuk's 61.98.
• In deciding sets against all opponents recently, Kostyuk has a slight lead, winning 53% to Kasatkina's 47%.
• Kasatkina outperforms in breaking point opportunities, converting 37.81% of chances while Kostyuk has only converted 34.07%.
• Both players have the best career success rates on clay, which could influence the match outcome based on the surface.

Editorial Prediction (July 30, 2025, UTC):

As we approach this matchup, both players show a competitive edge in various aspects. Kasatkina has a slight advantage in returning games and overall toughness under extreme pressure, such as in tiebreaks and deciding sets. Her record in head-to-head matches against Kostyuk is nearly even, but she has a slight psychological advantage due to previous deciding set victories.

Kostyuk, on the other hand, boasts a better recent match win percentage, and she has been impressive with her breakpoint save rate. She has also bested higher-ranked opponents with a high success rate at the Masters level compared to Kasatkina's main tour focus.

Their skills on the clay surface could be a significant factor, but given current data, Kasatkina's marginally superior return game could prove decisive. However, with such minor differences in statistics, the match could very well be a tightly contested affair, expected to push both players to their limits.

Considering all factors, we predict a slight edge for Kasatkina as the likely winner in this upcoming match, although Kostyuk's capabilities ensure it could go either way.