Prediction of Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Henrique Rocha at Lisbon Challenger 09-26-25

• Second serve performance: In the last six months, Pablo Llamas Ruiz has secured 45.72% of points on his second serve. Henrique Rocha slightly outperforms him with a 46.16% success rate.
• Return game stats: Pablo Llamas Ruiz has claimed 44.11% of his opponent's second serve points, compared to Henrique Rocha's 44.35%. On the first serve returns, Ruiz leads with 31.70% over Rocha’s 28.19%.
• Under pressure, Henrique Rocha edges Ruiz by saving 53.45% of breakpoints against Ruiz's 53.01%.
• Pablo Llamas Ruiz has a superior year-round match-winning percentage of 59.57%, while Henrique Rocha stands at 50.77%.
• Surface preferences: Ruiz excels on clay with a 65% win rate, whereas Rocha prefers hard surfaces, boasting a 66% success rate there.
• Player level: Ruiz has a better record at Challenger/ITF tournaments > $10K, winning 57.69%, while Rocha has a lower win rate of 46.81% at the same level.
• Head-to-head history: Henrique Rocha leads Ruiz, having won their sole encounter, in which one of the three sets was claimed by Ruiz.
• Average match duration between them has been 1 hour, 58 minutes, and 22 seconds.
• Opponent quality: Ruiz has faced higher-ranked opponents, with an average rank of 237.87, compared to Rocha's 251.69 average.
• In deciding sets, Ruiz has demonstrated resilience, winning 67% over the last 12 months, whereas Rocha has a 58% success rate.

Editorial Prediction (September 26, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing their recent form and specific strengths, both players exhibit certain advantages. Pablo Llamas Ruiz shows better service return stats, particularly on first serve returns, which are crucial for disrupting Rocha's rhythm.

Ruiz has demonstrated a superior match-winning percentage over the past year and performs exceptionally well under tournament conditions similar to this one. His experience against higher-ranked opponents also lends him an edge in critical situations, particularly in deciding sets.

Despite Henrique Rocha's slight edge in their head-to-head encounter and his slightly better second serve performance, Ruiz’s adaptability and past successes on clay make him a formidable opponent. Considering all factors, Pablo Llamas Ruiz is poised as the likely winner of the upcoming match.